The new Urban Generation.

Q: Why does it feel like my neighborhood is being overrun with 20-somethings straight out of college?

A: Though almost all population growth in big cities in the U.S. has been driven by immigration, during the 1990s 25 to 34 year-olds were much more likely than any other demographic group to live in the central neighborhoods in the biggest cities. The number of Americans with a college degree has increased at incredible rates since the middle of the last century, so it should come as no surprise that about 30 percent of the 25 to 34 year-olds now have a some sort of college degree.

Younger folks with degrees are also even more likely than their friends and other demographic groups to live in the biggest 50 cities in the U.S., and are either super concentrated in the center of the city or out on the periphery of the region. As Neighbors Project frequently says, gentrification and sprawl have become two sides of the same coin. We believe in addressing both at the same time, lest we exacerbate one or the other.

Q: But surely it can’t get worse. How many more of you are there?

A: The number of persons ages 25 to 34 in 2000 was actually far less than the number of 25 to 34 year-olds a decade earlier. But you should expect our numbers to grow over the next few decades as the daughters and sons of the Baby Boomers come of age in big numbers. The emerging generating of people born between roughly 1978 and 2000, known by various silly names like “Millennial” and “Generation Y,” is about 76 million people in the U.S. If current college rates continue, then about 21.5 million of those people will get a college degree of some sort.

If this generation follows the same patterns as the folks who came of age in the 1990s and early 2000s, then cities will see even more 20- and 30-somethings moving into central neighborhoods. This is another reason why Neighbors Project is working hard on turning our generation into good neighbors; we all need to set a good example for our younger sisters and brothers.

Q: Are you all white?

A: No. City residents in their 20s and 30s are actually much more diverse than the overall U.S. population. That said, it’s true that the sub-group of younger city residents with a college education is less diverse than the overall age group, though more diverse than previous generations of college graduates. With the exception of Asian-Americans, the college attainment rates of Latino and non-white groups are considerably lower than those of white non-Latinos.

Looking at the bigger picture, cities as a whole are actually increasingly less white; the population of the top 100 cities is now majority non-white. Really recent data suggests that the decline in the white population is starting to level off in some cities. Unfortunately, many cities are also starting to see more and more Black flight. And Latinos are increasingly likely to settle in suburbs as well as the city. So the old assumptions about who lives where are increasingly unreliable. You’re better off getting to know your neighbor as an individual than pigeon-holing her or him from afar as one of “them” (pick whatever demographic you like), since your neighbor is increasingly likely to surprise you with a back story that doesn’t fit the old molds. Check out this excellent post on the modern complications or urban neighborhoods.

Q: Why should we even want more younger adults in our cities and neighborhoods?

A: Well, ideally you’re open to living next to whoever is a good neighbor. But in case you’d prefer to live next to people who are more similar to you in age or other background, keep in mind that it benefits us all economically to live in large diverse cities with little segregation and a high level of educational achievement. It takes all kinds to make a successful city, particularly if you’re interested in more than just pure financial gain, but successful cities that have income and wage growth tend to be ones that have both large percentages of adults with college degrees and low levels of segregation.

That said, it also harms all city residents when neighborhoods and cities aren’t able to absorb and retain younger city residents without driving out people who have been living in the hot new neighborhood. Hence all of the concern about gentrification in almost every big city in the U.S. Displacement and resegregation along class or education lines is a terrible – and we believe, unnecessary – byproduct of the lack of planning and neighborhood agreement on changing demographic forces in our cities. Neighbors Project believes that getting to know our neighbors is the first step towards creating the community capacity to negotiate a realistic plan for absorbing and retaining a diverse population that doesn’t hate each other at both the neighborhood and city level.

Sources

“The Young and Restless in a Knowledge Economy” by CEOs for Cities (December 2005).
“The Changing Dynamics of American Cities” by CEOs for Cities (March 30, 2004).